While we all would ideally like to have the highest scoring players at each position, fantasy football is ultimately decided by week to week matchups.  The 40 points that your stud QB puts up for you in the last week of the regular season isn’t going to mean crap if he subsequently puts up a stinker in the first round of the playoffs.  It is for this reason that, in addition to total point output, fantasy owners must also consider consistency when they are filling out their rosters and setting their lineups.  The best way to quantify the consistency of a player’s weekly point production is to calculate the standard deviation of that production, which I have done for the top 15 quarterbacks, 25 running backs, 25 wide receivers, and 20 tight ends from my ½ PPR dynasty league.  Please keep in mind that the following is by no means intended to be used as rankings.

The numbers are misleading because a player that scores more total points inherently leads to higher deviations from the mean.

Players can also be consistently bad.  However, this definitely could help decide between two players with similar total point production, and there are some revealing trends that can be gleamed from this data.

QUARTERBACK

Scoring:  1 pt every 37.5 yds (8 points for every 300), 4 pts passing TD, -1.5 pts INT, 6 points rushing TD, 1 point yardage bonuses at 400,450,500

Right away we see why Peyton Manning and Tom Brady still reign supreme in the hierarchy of NFL quarterbacks.  They are the kings of consistency, and their presence at the top of the list is a good indication that being a traditional pocket passer still goes a long way in this league.  There is a clear gap between the two future Hall of Famers and the next closest competitor, Andrew Luck (get used to reading his name next to Brady and Manning’s).  Some other general observations:  It is interesting to see Matthew Stafford and Josh Freeman so high on the list after what seemed like maddeningly inconsistent seasons.  We also see further proof that you can do far worse than Tony Romo as your starting quarterback.

There is a clear trend of running quarterbacks having the highest fluctuations in weekly point output.  RG3, Cam Newton, and Russell Wilson are in a tier of their own at the bottom of this chart.  There is no doubt that this result correlates with the boom or bust nature of this style of quarterbacking.  I somewhat expected this to be the case, but not as clear as this.  I’m sure that there are some Newton owners from this year that can attest to the pitfalls of inconsistency, as many were burned when they failed to make the playoffs due to his mediocre early season play only to see him light it up come fantasy playoff time.  That being said, all three of those players finished in the top 10 at the position and any fantasy owner should be glad to own them moving forward (except maybe RG3… eesh).

RUNNING BACK

Scoring: 1/2 PPR, 1 pt every 12.5 yds rushing/recieving (8 pts for 100 yds), 6 pt rushing/receiving TD, -1.5 pt fumble, 1 pt yardage bonuses at 150, 175, 200

There is not as obvious of a trend with the running backs as there was with the quarterbacks.  However, I think that this list is a good way of wading through the steaming pile of inconsistency that comes after the top backs are off the board in your draft.  One thing that I think is clear from the chart is Matt Forte is an elite option if he is healthy.  He, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, and Frank Gore are the only backs among the top 12 total point getters to also finish in the top 10 in consistency.  We all know how good Foster and Rice are, and Gore looked as good as ever this year.  With many people down on him following an injury-plagued season, Forte could be a steal in 2013 fantasy drafts.

Likewise, if everyone in your league is predicting Gore’s imminent demise, don’t be fooled.  He is running behind the best run blocking line in the game with an offensive mastermind at head coach and a quarterback who is only going to get better.  I don’t care how old he is.  If he slips to the 4^th or 5^th round do not let him get by you.  Same goes for Steven Jackson, who had another top 20 season and was by far the most consistent back on this list, in the 6^th round range.

WIDE RECIEVER

Scoring: 1/2 PPR, 1 pt every 12.5 yds receiving/rushing (8 pts for 100 yds), 6 pt receiving/rushing TD, -1.5 pts fumble 1 pt yardage bonuses at 150, 175, 200

                Similar to running backs, there are no clear trends that can be drawn from the tiers on this chart.  However, there are several valuable bits of information to be taken away from it.  For instance, I’m sure that many people have A.J. Green and Dez Bryant, who scored within 4 total points of each other in 2012, right next to each other in their wide receiver rankings.  It is abundantly clear from this list that AJ Green scores his points on a much more consistent basis and should therefore be the higher pick in fantasy drafts.  In fact, Bryant is the only player in the analysis to have an average weekly deviation of over 10 points.  Bryant is an elite talent, but Green is special.

Steve Smith, Stevie Johnson, and Mike Williams were about as steady as second wide receivers come this year in fantasy, and this is reflected at the top of the chart.  It is interesting to see Lance Moore in the top 5 as well.  One would think that with the way Drew Brees spreads the ball around, he would be pretty inconsistent.  Moore has really established himself opposite Marques Colston, and there are plenty of points to be had in New Orleans.  Chances are he will be undervalued come draft time.  If you are able to wait and take him as a third wide receiver he could provide an enormous rate of return.

TIGHT END

Scoring: 1/2 PPR, 1 pt every 12.5 yds receiving/rushing (8 pts for 100 yds), 6 pt receiving/rushing TD, -1.5 pts fumble 1 pt yardage bonuses at 150, 175, 200

Good to see that Jermichael Finley as at least consistent at something….being terrible.  The same can be said of Brandon Pettigrew.  Other general observations: I think this chart confirms that even in a 10 team league Jermaine Gresham is a viable starter.  No surprise to see the three injury maligned stars of the position (Graham, Gronk, Hernandez) near the bottom of the chart.  The same can’t be said for Tony Gonzalez, who one would have assumed would be a little higher on the list.

Get after me on the twitter machine @JoeyPigskins